In the last post, we talked about the different types of wagers that can be placed on NFL Games. This time around, we will be discussing the basic advice that the bettors should consider before they place their wagers on any game.
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The predictions last week were horrible. They were done without much thought into the matchups and they were based off of the general consensus of the media and the so called expert opinions that were widely available on the Internet. These are two of the biggest mistakes that any gambler could make. Some of the games were determined completely by luck (or misfortune) and some of the matchups had red flags that a lot of people ignored.
Our record against the spread for Week 1 was a paltry 4-12, which is almost as difficult as going 12-4. You more or less have a 50/50 chance with most games because the oddsmakers are very good at coming up with the spread. Anything over 70 one way or another is either amazingly lucky or amazingly unfortunate. We could go back and change those results like some websites will; but it is more important to see the gambler’s folly and to try to learn from the experience.
With that in mind, we will be offering Week 2 predictions. Just remember to do your own work and don’t rely on other so-called “Experts” to make your picks for you. Here is some of the best advice that you can follow:
Make Your Own Picks!
If you are going to doing any NFL Online Betting, here is the most important tip that you should follow. Don’t rely on what others say. Do your own research and come up with your own conclusions. Watch as many games as you can early on so you can learn about the faults and failings of the various NFL teams. The numbers will tell you a lot, but they can also lie to you when a game is out of hand early and a team gets yardage in garbage time to make it look respectable.
You need to make your own Power Rankings and not just go off of what ESPN, Yahoo, CBS or any other major network says. It will usually take the first 4 weeks before any real patterns emerge for a particular team. The first 4 weeks of the NFL season is more speculation and guesswork then anything concrete that you should follow.
For proof of this, just take a look at the games that were “locks” this past week.
New England at Buffalo – everyone had the Patriots blowing out the Bills and the majority of wagers were placed on the Pats (-9). Result – Tom Brady needed his patented late 4th quarter drive to set up a go-ahead field goal.
Oakland at Indianapolis – this was everyone’s blow out of the week. The Colts were supposed to win by 14 points or more. The majority of wagers were on Indy (-10). Result – Indianapolis needed to intercept Terrelle Pryor with less than a minute left before they were assured the victory.
Tampa Bay at New York Jets – the Jets were the butt of every joke heading out of the preseason. The -3.5 line on Tampa Bay was a big joke as well and over 95 of wagers were placed on the Bucs. Result – Even without the personal foul late hit that let the Jets kick the game winner, Tampa Bay still would not have covered.
Look at the Matchups!
This is more important than anything else when it comes to making picks. If one team has a significant weakness and the opposing team has a significant strength that can expose that weakness, that is the matchup that you want to seek.
For example, let’s say one of the worse run defenses is playing against one of the best running teams; this is a game where you might want to make a bet. Or, a terrible passing team plays against a team with a great secondary. This is a game where the defense can key in on the running game and the quarterback.
Another thing that you need to look for are key injuries to starters. This is especially crucial when a starting cornerback, defensive end or offensive lineman is replaced by a backup player. These injuries might not affect the spread a lot, but they can make a big difference against good teams that will exploit this weakness in the lineup.
Betting Red Flags
Most people know the old saying “Bet on the favorites early and the underdogs late.” This means that you will get the best odds on the favorites after the line opens and the best odds on underdogs close to the start of the game.
When people bet up the favorite, either the spread or the line should move. If the spread of the game was -7.5 points (-115), it should either get bet up to -8 points (-110) or to -7.5 points (-120). If the majority of the wagers are on one team but the line doesn’t move (or it moves in the opposite direction), this is a red flag. This either means that the sportsbooks are trusting the oddmakers line or there is a very large bet on the underdog.
Either way, you should look out and either avoid the spread altogether or place a bet against the crowd. This happened in no less than 6 games last week.